Analysis of Probability of Dropout, Continuation and Graduation through Markovian Chains of University Students in Bolivar, Colombia

Abstract

ABSTRACT: In the process to reach a professional title can influence several factors, due to this a student entering a higher education institution can not assure with absolute certainty its future performance. The objective of this study is to formulate a model using Markovian chains to determine the relationship between the socioeconomic level and the middle level (Saber 11) of students entering the Industrial Engineering program at the Universidad Tecnológica de Bolivar with his academic development emphasizing in the results of his tests Saber Pro and his probabilities of obtaining the professional title or of abandonment of the program. We identified the different directions of the university that manage the data of the students of the industrial engineering program, collected and ordered relevant data to achieve the construction of a model, which allows to predict, with support in probability values, the time that the Students pass in each of the levels of the Industrial Engineering program of the technological University according to their socioeconomic level and test results to know 11º., And their possibilities of evolution level at level, until the possibility of obtaining a certain result in the tests know pro, achieve graduation or withdrawal. Of the program. The results obtained allow us to expand the knowledge about the academic performance of students in the different programs offered by the university, which is information of great importance for the UTB to establish strategies that accompany the student during the academic development of his career.