The Fundamental Role of Rainfall on Soil Moisture: A data-driven statistical study on the Aburrá Valley

Abstract

ABSTRACT : This study took a quantitative approach to understanding how rainfall affects soil moisture, which is a common trigger for landslides. The research focused on a local area (the Aburrá Valley), due to its high susceptibility to landslides. Landslides pose a significant threat to the local population due to the region's steep, landslide-prone terrain and frequent tropical rainfall. This threat impacts the region twofold: it exacerbates poverty and leads to significant loss of life. Many other studies have used empirical, physical, and satellite-based approaches to predict landslides. However, the fluctuating state of soil moisture had not been a focus of previous research. To address this gap, this study placed strong emphasis on soil moisture fluctuations following rainfall events. Our goal was to develop an empirical model that links rainfall and soil moisture measurements. To achieve this, pluviograph data and soil moisture sensor measurements were processed and analyzed to define the variables and parameters for an empirical model capable of predicting soil moisture levels based on rainfall data. Ultimately, we developed empirical equations to fulfill this purpose while leaving room for further research. The results and applications of this model could contribute to future studies on rainfall events that trigger landslides, including the development of early warning systems that, when properly implemented, could help protect populations living in high-risk areas.