The Choco low-level jet in CMIP5 experiments : present and future

Abstract

ABSTRACT: South American countries exhibit a high vulnerability to climate change and natural climate variability. Hence, it is necessary for countries like Colombia to assess the possible impacts linked to climate change, in order to design adaptation strategies. The main tool for getting information about future climate are projections of global climate models (GCMs). This work aims to identify how GCMs included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate climate features over northern South America, especially mean seasonal precipitation and the Choco low-level jet, as well as their possible future conditions under a global warming scenario. This work is divided in three main chapters. The assessment of the ability of the CMIP5 models to represent the climatology of rainfall over northern South America is carried out in Chapter 1. The results of this chapter were presented in the “XXI Seminario de Hidráulica e Hidrología”, held on Bogotá-Colombia on August 24 to 26, 2016. Since precipitation is a complex variable and it origin processes are not well solved by global climate models, Chapter 2 analyzes the representation of the Choco low-level jet by GCMs. This jet is involved in the genesis of Mesoscale Convective System in the region, and therefore, is linked to precipitation over central and western Colombia. Products of this chapter were presented in the following events: “Observing and Modeling Climate Variability in the Intra-Americas Seas and Impacts on the Continental Americas and the Caribbean - IASCLIP Virtual Workshop” held on September 9th to 11th, 2015; “11Th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography” held at Santiago Chile on October 5th to 9th, 2015; “I Simposio de Hidrometeorología, Cambio Climático y Cambio Ambiental” held at Medellín-Colombia on November 30, 2015; and" Simposio de Hidrometeorología, Cambio Climático y Cambio Ambiental” held at MedellínColombia on November 24, 2016. Furthermore, a paper regarding the main results discussed in this chapter is currently under review at the journal Climate Dynamics. Finally, the future projections of the Choco low-level jet are investigated in Chapter 3. Some of the results presented in this chapter were presented in the following events: “International Conference on Atmosphere-Biosphere Interactions, Purdue-Colombia” held at Medellín-Colombia on October 31 to November 2, 2016; and “32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology”, held at San Juan–Puerto Rico on April 17 to 22, 2016.